G2TT
来源类型Report
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR2854
来源IDRR-2854-A
Army Expeditionary Civilian Demand: Forecasting Future Requirements for Civilian Deployments
Molly Dunigan; Ryan Andrew Brown; Samantha Cherney; Maria DeYoreo; Katherine C. Hastings; Jennifer Lamping Lewis; Christina Panis; Leslie Adrienne Payne; Michael Schwille; Lauren Skrabala
发表日期2019-10-24
出版年2019
语种英语
结论

There is a need for a more accurate method of modeling demand for expeditionary civilian capabilities over time

  • Force providers do not collect data on civilian deployments in a standardized, systematic fashion, nor do they use sophisticated approaches to forecast demand for expeditionary civilians.
  • An appropriate method for modeling future demand for expeditionary civilians is a multistage statistical model capable of pulling in numerous inputs specific to particular deployment scenarios.

Certain characteristics of historical operations are useful in predicting future demand for civilian deployments

  • The type of operation and the role of the country to which personnel deploy (whether it is a core or ancillary participant in the operation) appear to be critical indicators in predicting future demand for civilian deployments, with counterinsurgency operations in core countries having the highest demand.
  • High levels of military deployments coincide with high levels of civilian deployments across all types of operations, and civilian deployments generally increase as military deployments increase.
  • Civilian deployments are inversely related to countries' fragility and polity scores. Countries categorized as "fragile" and having "transitional" governments tend to demand more civilian deployments than other locations. Stable democracies tend to require the fewest civilian deployments.
  • Civilian administrators and logisticians are likely to be in high demand in future operations. Other occupations, such as intelligence and data processing, will likely be in high demand to support certain types of operations. Historically, Army civilian administrators, mechanical and electrical equipment personnel, and logisticians have deployed most often.
摘要

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has long turned to its civilian employees to support overseas operations and emergencies. Yet there is no standardized, systematic process in place for collecting data on past civilian deployments or for identifying a pool of civilians who are available to deploy to future contingencies. The requirements for these expeditionary civilians are often the result of a compromise among defense components rather than based on actual historical or modeled demand.

,

As the largest provider of civilians for DoD operations, the U.S. Army stands to benefit to a great extent from a more robust process for forecasting future demand for its civilian workforce. Although it has established organizations and processes to fulfill its staffing mix obligations, there is some question of whether the processes are efficient and effective and whether the Army's current approach to providing civilian personnel will be appropriate for future conflicts. To address potential gaps, it is important to examine DoD's targets for civilian staffing, how these needs may change, and what policies and procedures should be in place to ensure that the Army can continue to meet these demands.

,

The modeling process described in this report supports the Army and — by extension — other DoD civilian force providers in aligning their available expeditionary civilian workforces with the future demand for these capabilities, with the goal of helping them forecast demand and better prepare to deploy civilians to a range of future scenarios.

目录
  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Key Policies and Practices Pertaining to the Use of Expeditionary Civilians

  • Chapter Three

    Developing Historical and Future Operational Scenario Profiles

  • Chapter Four

    Development and Results of the Demand Model

  • Chapter Five

    Conclusions and Recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Interview Protocol

  • Appendix B

    Details of the Demand Model

主题Civilian Military Workforce ; Military Career Field Management ; Military Force Deployment ; Operational Readiness ; United States Army
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2854.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/523918
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Molly Dunigan,Ryan Andrew Brown,Samantha Cherney,et al. Army Expeditionary Civilian Demand: Forecasting Future Requirements for Civilian Deployments. 2019.
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