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Implications for the United States

• Given the multiple benefits derived from long-range strategic bomber flights over the Asia-Pacific region, whether in the area of conventional strategic signaling, realistic training opportunities, coercion of Taiwan, or propaganda for domestic consumption, the United States should expect that Beijing will continue to pursue — and even ramp up — these activities for the foreseeable future.
• Chinese president Xi Jinping's intent is to modernize and professionalize the People's Liberation Army into a "world-class" force that aligns with his vision of a stronger, "rejuvenated" China, and this virtually guarantees that the PLAAF will enjoy generous top leadership support in the coming years.
• The U.S. Air Force and other decisionmakers tasked with handling the U.S. response to the bomber flights should not expect to be able to dissuade Chinese leaders from continuing down this path.
• China's next-generation long-range strategic bomber, dubbed the H-20, is expected to enter service in the 2020s and will likely have the range to reliably threaten U.S. targets beyond the Second Island Chain, including Guam and Hawaii. Its likely nuclear capability could have implications for U.S. extended deterrence and for assurance of U.S. allies and partners in the region.
• Going forward, the key objective for the United States and its allies and partners should be to determine how to mitigate any negative effects of Chinese bomber flights, which appear set to become an increasingly regular occurrence in the region.

This report examines the key drivers behind China's strategic bomber flights throughout the Asia-Pacific region, assessing Chinese commentary on flights and leveraging a number of sources, including interviews in Taipei and Tokyo, to better understand and gauge regional reactions. The report recommends specific responses for consideration by the U.S. Air Force and U.S. policymakers, as well as allies and partners, offering an in-depth analysis of the key issues driving top Chinese leaders to move in the direction of conducting these overwater bomber flights.

Since March 2015, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has sent its strategic bomber on long-range overwater flights on at least 38 separate occasions to important areas throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Chinese leaders seek to achieve at least four key objectives with PLAAF bomber flights throughout the region: First, bombers enable Beijing to send a deterrence message or to signal resolve in the conventional military domain to defend its maritime territorial claims. Second, overwater flights significantly enhance realistic training for PLAAF operators. Third, successful bomber flights offer Chinese leaders the opportunity to play up their achievements for domestic consumption, highlighting progress toward the building of "world-class" military forces. And fourth, the increased operational tempo of PLAAF bomber flights around Taiwan appear to be designed, at least in part, to ratchet up pressure against Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, as she has refused to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus, also known as the One China Consensus, since taking office in May 2016.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Cataloging PLAAF Bomber Flights in the Asia-Pacific

• Chapter Three

  Drivers of Chinese Bomber Flights

• Chapter Four

  Regional Reactions to Chinese Bombers

• Chapter Five

  China Developing a Next-Generation Bomber

• Chapter Six

  Implications and Recommendations for the United States

• Appendix A

  A Full List of PLA H-6 Long-Range Bomber Flights over Water