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China's Support of the Order

• China's behavior over the past two decades does not mark it as an opponent or saboteur of the postwar international order, but rather as a conditional supporter.
• China can be expected to demand more influence in the international system as a condition for its support.

Looking Forward

• The posture China takes toward the institutions, norms, and rules of a shared order is in significant flux; a range of outcomes — from continued qualified support to more-aggressive challenges — are possible.
• Events, both inside and outside China, could drive its policy in many directions, and its future strategy is probably more unclear than at any time in years. U.S. policy must take into account this fundamental uncertainty.

Strengthening the Order

• A strengthened and increasingly multilateral international order can continue to provide a critical tool for the United States and other countries to shape and constrain rising Chinese power.
• Examples of reforms to build multilateralism and strengthen norms include measures to expand the role of China and other developing economies in the International Monetary Fund and to increase Chinese involvement in mediating international conflicts through the United Nations.

China's Rising Power

• Modifications to the order on the margins in response to Chinese preferences will typically pose less of a threat to a stable international system than a future in which China is alienated from that system.
• Although Chinese-led initiatives do challenge U.S. leadership and influence, they generally do not pose a threat to the fundamental integrity of the international system.

The question of how China's rise will affect the post–World War II international order carries considerable significance for the future of global politics. This report evaluates the character and possible future of China's engagement with the postwar order. The resulting portrait is anything but straightforward: China's engagement with the order remains a complex, often contradictory work in progress.

This report offers four major findings about the relationship of China to the international order. First, China's behavior over the past two decades does not mark it as an opponent or saboteur of the order, but rather as a conditional supporter. Since China undertook a policy of international engagement in the 1980s, the level and quality of its participation in the order rivals that of most other states. Second, looking forward, the posture China takes toward the institutions, norms, and rules of a shared order is now in significant flux; various outcomes — from continued qualified support to more-aggressive challenges — are possible. Third, partly because of this uncertainty, a strengthened and increasingly multilateral international order can provide a critical tool for the United States and other countries to shape and constrain rising Chinese power. Finally, modifications to the order on the margins in response to Chinese preferences pose less of a threat to a stable international system than a future in which China is alienated from that system. However, these modifications must be governed by strictly articulated end-points.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  China's Interests and Ambitions

• Chapter Three

  China's Views of International Order

• Chapter Four

  China's Behavior Toward the Order

• Chapter Five

  The Future of China's Interaction with the International Order

• Chapter Six

  Three Trajectories for China and the International Order

• Chapter Seven

  Conclusions and Recommendations