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China's Approach to Nuclear Deterrence Has Been Broadly Consistent Since Its First Nuclear Test in 1964

• China has, however, recently accelerated nuclear force building and modernization.

Chinese Nuclear Strategists Still Key Primarily on Nuclear Developments in the United States

• Strategists are especially concerned about the development of U.S. missile defenses and conventional prompt global strike capabilities.
• But planners are also concerned about the growth of nuclear inventories in Asia and the complex nuclear dynamics emerging there.
• Some strategists say privately that China might not accept a push from India for nuclear parity, should New Delhi embark on such a course.

Bureaucratic Processes and Politics Are Likely to Affect the Development of Chinese Nuclear Forces and Thinking

• Civilian leaders are reportedly less involved than they once were in the details of decisionmaking about nuclear research, development, and production.
• The nuclear constituency within the PLA is also gaining increased status and voice.
• There is no firewall between China's conventional and nuclear missile forces, and technologies and practices developed for the former are already being applied to the nuclear forces.
• In the future, this may give China some limited counterforce capability.

China Is Likely to Increase Emphasis on Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Forces in the Coming Years

• Although unlikely to change formal policy formulations, China may adjust its definitions of key terms or add caveats.
• It may, for example, hedge its language on no-first-use to include a conventional attack on its nuclear forces as "first use," thus permitting a nuclear response.

China's approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first nuclear test in 1964. Key elements are its no-first-use policy and reliance on a small force of nuclear weapons capable of executing retaliatory strikes if China is attacked. China has recently accelerated nuclear force building and modernization, and both international and domestic factors are likely to drive faster modernization in the future. Chinese nuclear planners are concerned by strategic developments in the United States, especially the deployment of missile defenses. Within the region, Beijing is also an actor in complex multilateral security dynamics that now include several nuclear states, and the improving nuclear capabilities of China's neighbors, especially India, are a growing concern for Beijing. Constituencies for nuclear weapons have gained in bureaucratic standing within the People's Liberation Army (PLA). With few, if any, firewalls between China's conventional and nuclear missile forces, new technologies developed for the former are already being applied to the latter, a trend that will almost certainly continue. Given these changes, China is likely to increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence, accelerate nuclear force modernization, and make adjustments (although not wholesale changes) to policy.

• Chapter One

  China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Baseline: China's Evolving Strategic Nuclear Concepts

• Chapter Three

  China's Nuclear Force Structure

• Chapter Four

  China's View of the Global Security Environment

• Chapter Five

  Chinese Views of U.S. Nuclear Forces and Policy

• Chapter Six

  Nested Security Dilemmas and China's View of Other (Non-U.S.) Nuclear Powers

• Chapter Seven

  Internal Drivers: Political Leadership and Bureaucracy

• Chapter Eight

  Material Resources and Constraints

• Chapter Nine

  Outputs: Potential Developments in China's Nuclear Future

• Chapter Ten

  Contingent Futures

• Chapter Eleven

  China's Accelerating Nuclear Modernization: Implications