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Chinese and U.S. Views of Cybersecurity Have Very Little Overlap

• The United States and China have very different perspectives on cyberspace. The United States emphasizes extending the rule of law internationally. China stresses the maintenance of state sovereignty.
• The most important U.S. interest on the bilateral agenda is for China to eliminate espionage for commercial gain and modulate its other cyber-espionage activities. The hack of the Office of Personnel Management was a particular sore point.
• Within the bilateral relationship, the United States places more importance on cyberspace issues than China does. Chinese behavior in cyberspace is often the top item on the bilateral agenda; U.S. behavior in cyberspace rarely makes China's top-ten list.

Avoiding Targeting or Carrying Out Espionage on Critical Infrastructure Provides Prospects for Negotiating a Set of Norms

• The Chinese appear interested in norms against countries attacking one another's critical infrastructure. They also understand that such a norm would also have to forbid espionage against critical infrastructure (distinguishing espionage from implanting attacks is very hard).
• The United States believes it can catch Chinese cheating and would like some process by which cheating, once discovered, is acknowledged — with possible consequences to follow.
• The Chinese believe they are unlikely to catch cheating by the United States and are apprehensive of any agreement that would put them at a corresponding disadvantage.
• Any serious agreement would need a process that both sides could trust and may require some way to increase China's confidence it is own attribution capabilities.

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the U.S.-China relationship has been characterized by conflict, confrontation, and strategic mistrust. The tensions that divide the two countries have been growing in importance in recent years. Unfortunately, they apply just as much to cyberspace as to relations in the physical world. Indeed, of all the areas where the relationship between the two sides is troubled, cyberspace has been one of the most contentious. The United States and China began formal negotiations in 2013 to resolve such differences only to see them abruptly suspended in 2014, when China broke them off in response to the U.S. indictment of several Chinese military officers on charges related to cyber-espionage activities. This study explores U.S. policy options for managing relations with China over this critical policy area through the use of agreements and norms of behavior. It looks at two basic questions: Can the United States and China achieve meaningful outcomes through formal negotiations over norms and rules in cyberspace? And, if so, what areas are most likely to yield agreement and what might be exchanged for what? This analysis should be of interest to two communities: those concerned with U.S. relations with China, and those concerned with developing norms of conduct in cyberspace, notably those that enhance security and freedom.

• Chapter One

  The "Cyber Problem" in U.S.-China Relations

• Chapter Two

  Coming to Terms

• Chapter Three

  Getting to Now

• Chapter Four

  Getting to Yes?

• Chapter Five

  Conclusions