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来源类型Publication
Adding Design Elements to Improve Time Series Designs: No Child Left Behind as an Example of Causal Pattern-Matching
Manyee Wong; Thomas D. Cook; and Peter M. Steinerd
发表日期2015-03-09
出版者Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, vol. 8, no. 2
出版年2015
语种英语
概述Some form of a short interrupted time series (ITS) is often used to evaluate state and national programs. ",
摘要

Some form of a short interrupted time series (ITS) is often used to evaluate state and national programs. An ITS design with a single treatment group assumes that the pretest functional form can be validly estimated and extrapolated into the postintervention period where it provides a valid counterfactual. This assumption is problematic. Ambiguous preintervention functional forms are common, as are other factors affecting posttest means and slopes. Using No Child Left Behind as an example, we demonstrate how adding multiple design elements to the basic ITS structure serves to promote causal inference by limiting alternative interpretations. No added design element is perfect by itself, but we argue that they collectively provide a strong causal warrant when the predictions they engender are complex, the results “cohere” with the predictions, and no alternative can fit the same pattern of predictions even if it can fit some of them.

URLhttps://www.mathematica.org/our-publications-and-findings/publications/adding-design-elements-to-improve-time-series-designs-no-child-left-behind-as-an-example-of-causal
来源智库Mathematica Policy Research (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/488017
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GB/T 7714
Manyee Wong,Thomas D. Cook,and Peter M. Steinerd. Adding Design Elements to Improve Time Series Designs: No Child Left Behind as an Example of Causal Pattern-Matching. 2015.
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