| 摘要 | ABSTRACT
1. Research Purpose
In 2015, the new installation capacity of global new and renewable energy was at the highest it has ever been despite poor conditions for new and renewable energy industries, including continued low oil prices, and reduced government support policies due to the global depression. This is significant because it means that new and renewable energy has started to secure price competitiveness with fossil fuels and started to break free of the influence of government policy support. A friendly policy environment for new and renewable energy industries is forming, which includes the establishment of enthusiastic new and renewable energy supply goals that encompass the Paris Agreement, advanced countries, developing countries, and underdeveloped countries.
In a situation where market conditions and policy conditions are changing, it is necessary for Korea to boost policy timeliness and effectiveness in order to efficiently supply new and renewable energy and effectively foster relevant industries. In conjunction with this need, there is a demand for studies that propose policy alternatives based on investigations and analyses of the international new and renewable energy market and policy changes.
One of the main purposes of this study is to deduce policy implications in order to effectively solve pending policy issues, such as expanding new and renewable energy supply and fostering relevant industries by gaining the understanding of the international new and renewable energy market and policy trends through domestic and international information, and data and professional networks. The other main purpose is to contribute to timely policymaking and effective improvements by quickly providing investigation findings and analysis of study results to relevant government ministries.
2. Summary
2.1. New and Renewable Energy Market Trends
New and renewable energy generating facility capacity reached about 785 GW in 2015, of which 227 GW was solar power and 433 GW was wind power. Excluding water power, new and renewable energy new facility capacity added up to 134 GW, exceeding new facility capacities for coal(42 GW), gas(40 GW), nuclear power(15 GW), and water power(22 GW). As is well known, new and renewable energy markets suffered a blow due to the European economic crisis, and despite low fossil fuel prices for crude oil, coal, and natural gas, the supply of new and renewable energy is greatly increasing.
This is occurring because price competitiveness is being secured. In the case of solar power generation, global average LCOE, based on crystalline structure silicone solar batteries, was 315 $/MWh in the third quarter of 2009 and fell by a staggering 61% to 122 $/MWh in the second half of 2015. Some regions, including Europe and the US, have already reached solar and wind power grid parity, and in South America and the Middle East there have also been solar power generation project contracts signed at half of fossil fuel electric power costs.
The second reason that can be pointed out is market diversification. Until 2011, Western Europe, led by Germany, accounted for more than half of the market for new solar power installations. However, after 2012, emerging markets, including China, Japan, the US, Eastern Europe, and India, saw significant growth, and the market is expected to spread to Central and South America as well. In 2015, new investment in solar power was similar in advanced countries ($81 billion) and developing countries ($80 billion), and in the case of wind power, developing countries ($67 billion) invested over fifty percent more than advanced countries did ($42 billion). Despite recession in the European market, the market is growing due to this market diversification, which led the new and renewable energy market.
The new and renewable energy market is forecasted to be led by solar power in the future. Until 2015, there were more new wind power facilities than solar power facilities, but since 2016 there has been a turnaround. The biggest reason is Europe��s wind power market has been shrinking, and resident receptivity has worsened due to oversaturated wind power generation.
2.2. New and Renewable Energy Policy Trends
Recently the major countries�� core motivation for reforming new and renewable energy supply are to boost cost efficiency and transition to markets. As new and renewable energy supply increases, government fiscal burdens increase, and as consumer electric bill burdens increase, acceptance to new and renewable energy supply worsens. Moreover, the price competitiveness of new and renewable energy is improving while the need for reducing support levels is increasing. Against this backdrop, each country��s government is pushing for a transition to a reduced level of support, such as by cutting FiT tariffs, and to market-based policies, such as by introducing FiP and auction systems.
Of the reform motivations mentioned earlier, the introduction of auction systems is particularly worth paying attention to. Sixty-four countries or regions have introduced auction systems since the end of 2015. Major leading countries, including Japan, China and European countries are transitioning to auction systems, in addition to developing countries that already have existing auction systems in place.
Auction systems can be designed in various forms depending on policy goals. The most widely used system is a sealed-bid discriminative price method because it is relatively simple and uncontroversial compared to multi-attribute methods and cost-efficient methods. Auctions can be implemented as technology-specific or technology-neutral per policy goals. The former can be seen to protect and foster specific technologies, and the latter can be seen to focus on price efficiency. The auctions can be implemented by separately allocating auction supply according to facility capacity in order to protect small-sized power generation operators.
However, controversies are arising in recent new and renewable energy policy due to the expansion of distributed generation, as well as other related issues. The supply of distributed generation is expanding due to the spread of retail market reformation, increase in price competitiveness of new and renewable energy, and emergence of various types of business models. Leading countries, such as European countries, the US, and Japan, are laying systematic foundations such as subsidy policies for new and renewable energy facilities and ESS and FiT purchasing for excess electric power. However, there are assertions that while the supply of distributed generation is increasing, price competitiveness is rising as these policy methods are providing excessive benefits to new and renewable energy facility owners. In the United States, there are arguments being raised regarding renewable energy credit systems, and alternatives are being proposed, such as imposing exclusive use taxes, applying time-based pricing, and modifying credits that consider cost-avoidance.
Major leading countries are introducing and reviewing new measures to respond to system problems from the expansion of new and renewable energy supply. After the Kyushu shock, Japan made mandatory the introduction of equipment that blocks electric power supply and enabled the emergency blocking of access. In Europe, electric power transactions on each border are increasing and measures are being considered to secure system stability, such as direct transactions in the whole market for new and renewable electric energy, and halting payments on the difference when negative prices occur.
3. Research Results and Policy Suggestions
3.1. Supplementing RPS Systems by Combining Auction Systems
Under RPS systems, new and renewable energy generators are exposed to relatively high uncertainty compared to FiT, FiP, and auction systems. Boosting the level of market exposure for new and renewable energy is a global trend, but the transition from the lowest level, FiT, to the highest level, RPS, is causing various problems for both the government and the private sector.
To solve these problems, a system reform that reflects the positive points of auction systems is needed. However, as Korea only recently introduced RPS systems, completely reforming RPS systems may not be appropriate when taking into consideration policy continuity and market stability. Therefore, in the short term, it is necessary in an RPS system framework to graft auction systems�� advantages and take a step-by-step approach towards transitioning to auction systems in the long term. Of new and renewable energy markets segmented according to RPS systems, the first point that makes auction systems applicable is that they can become contract markets. FiP auction systems with fixed premiums are introduced to the contract market and can be run in the transitional stage to ensure the complete introduction of auction systems. Considering the current state of the market, auction supply will be allocated on a small scale during the early stages of implementation, and a review of measures that gradually expand auction supply is needed. In the long term, the introduction of auction systems can be completed by expanding to spot markets.
As solar and non-solar REC markets are already integrated, the implementation of technology-neutral auctions is desirable. In return, it is necessary to introduce auction methods in which auction supply is divided according to size in order to protect and foster small-sized generators. Regarding small-sized generators, measures that implement FiP auction systems with fixed premiums that are already in place in solar business selection systems are reasonable. However, in the case that this necessity is recognized, measures that lower uncertainty by one stage for small-sized generators rather than large-scale generators by introducing FiP auction systems with variable premiums can also be reviewed.
3.2. Developing Measures to Secure System Stability
There were few worries in Korea that the problem of a decline in system stability due to new and renewable energies would occur, but because these systems are isolated, the possibility that critical problems will occur in the early stages is higher than in Europe, with its high new and renewable energy supply rate, and cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is necessary to develop preemptive countermeasures for system problems owing to the expansion of new and renewable energy supply.
There are several alternatives to ensure system stability, including equipment that blocks electric power supply, ESS, introducing DR market , and inducing increased investment in backup generators by strengthening capacity compensation mechanisms. There is a need for optimized system plans that comprehensively utilize these alternatives in Korea. Moreover, it is necessary to carry out demonstration projects on these systems that target island regions, such as Jeju-do.
3.3. Increasing Consumer Market Participation
On the other side of securing price competitiveness of large-scale projects, distributed new and renewable energy supply is increasing based on consumer market participation. To increase consumer market participation, it is necessary to broaden points of contact with local residents by first expanding the role of local governments and increasing their participation. To accomplish this, it is necessary to expand established public energy enterprises of local governments including Jeju-do, Gyeonggi-do, and Seoul to other local governments. However, it is necessary to develop guidelines for establishing and managing these public energy enterprises and sharing responsibility between local governments and central government ministries.
Next, it is necessary to establish profit-sharing systems. Measures that expand existing facilities that are being used, such as equity participation-type REC weighted preferential buildings, and measures guaranteeing that projects would go to the highest bidder for equity participation-type projects in solar generator selection systems, will be reviewed.
Third, it is necessary to actively discover and foster distributed new and renewable energy business model . There are demands for laying the institutional groundwork for advancing new business models such as energy P2P service markets that are spreading in Europe, the US, and other areas. There are also demands for energy price system reforms, such as creating investment support programs and introducing time payment systems in order to stimulate the establishment of new and renewable energy start-ups.
3.4. Reforming Policies for Fostering New and Renewable Energy Industries
Recently, solar power has led new and renewable energy markets. There are demands for reforms to policies fostering new and renewable energy industries that focus on the solar power industry, as solar is expected to continue to be the market leader of new and renewable energy.
In order to foster the solar power industry, it is necessary to promote technology development and ensure a stable domestic market. Support should be expanded for the next generation of solar battery technologies to strengthen technology competitiveness and convergent technologies that can create new business models. To ensure stable domestic markets, it is necessary to expand domestic markets by expanding RPS obligations and guarantee stable profits for solar power generating projects by integrating auction systems.
Meanwhile, solar power markets are growing and diversifying, and therefore the active pioneering of emerging markets is a key strategy for securing leadership in future new and renewable energy markets. It is necessary to construct systems for comprehensively supporting the overseas expansion of energy industries that connect with financial institutions and provide financial consultation in order to ensure a smooth expansion into emerging markets, provide networking support in those overseas markets, share technical and industrial experience with others, and provide on-site policy and legal analysis services. |
