| 摘要 |
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The world community adopted the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 at the third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). The main achievement was agreement by developed(Annex I) countries to reduce or limit their greenhouse gas emissions. To assist parties in meeting their emission targets the Protocol sanctions the use of economic instruments such as the clean development mechanism(CDM), joint implementation(JI) and emissions trading(ET). However, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the Kyoto Protocol for much of the details in the Protocol remains to be negotiated. The challenge now facing those negotiating the Kyoto Protocol is to remove the uncertainty and secure ratification of the Protocol. After the negotiation reaches an agreement in near future, the next main issue to be addressed is the way of involvement of developing countries in emission abatement commitments.
The analysis presented in this report is based on the application of a global computable general equilibrium(CGE) model - GTEM_KOR. According to the analysis, compliance with Kyoto Protocol commitments, regardless of the emissions trading, is projected to impose economic costs on Annex I regions in the aggregate. Despite having no emission abatement commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, non-Annex I economies would be affected by emission abatement in Annex I regions undertaken as a result of entry into force of the Protocol. These effects would arise through trade and investment linkages between economies. Although the net impact for non-Annex I regions in aggregate is projected to be positive, there is a range of effects and the net impact for any one non-Annex I country will depend on its particular production and trade structure. As industrialized countries reduce their fossil fuel consumption to meet their emission reduction targets, their demand for fossil fuel imports from non-Annex I countries will decline, leading to lower fossil fuel export prices and volumes. On the other hand, as the production of energy intensive goods becomes more expensive in Annex I countries when emissions are penalized, demand for energy intensive exports from developing countries increases. Investment is projected to increase in most of developing countries. International emissions trading is also shown to greatly reduce the impacts of the emission reduction commitments both on developing countries and on Annex I countries.
South Korea, which exports energy intensive products such as iron and steel, nonferrous metal, chemical, rubber, and plastic products, is projected to benefit from emission reduction policies in Annex I regions. Nationally, the Kyoto Protocol is forecast to increase gross domestic product(GDP) and gross national product(GNP) relative to the reference case. The Protocol is also projected to change the industrial structure toward the energy intensive industries. Because of a decrease in exports of other products such as service and manufactured products resulting from reduced income of Annex I economies, however, the balance of trade of South Korea is projected to be deteriorated relative to reference case. The Protocol is also projected to increase the level of greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea.
Depending on the level of emission reduction targets, the South Korean emission reduction commitments in the future is projected to substantially reduce its economic benefits generated as a result of the emission reduction by Annex I countries. With the strong emission reduction targets, it is also projected to push South Korea to pay the economic costs through the lower GDP and GNP growth relative to the reference case. The emission reduction commitment of South Korea is also projected to lead to a change of industrial structure toward the less energy intensive industries such as service and manufacturing industries. International emissions trading is also found to reduce the economic and environmental impacts on South Korea.
On the whole, the Kyoto Protocol has the potential to cause profound economic changes in individual countries and the wider global economy. From an economic perspective the setting of greenhouse gas emission targets in the Kyoto Protocol was the key decision taken at Kyoto because of the significant implications on economic and trade competitiveness they hold. Now that individual Annex I country targets have been set, the international debate has shifted toward the question of cost effective and environmentally credible implementation of the Protocol and the way of participation of developing countries including South Korea to contribute to the global efforts for greenhouse gas emission reduction.
It is believed that the ongoing climate change negotiation could create the structural changes of industries in South Korea. This new situation will bring South Korea to an unfamiliar economic and social environment. To minimize adverse economic and social impacts, it should be stressed that the negotiation power of South Korea needs to be consolidated. At the same time, South Korea should develop policies and measures to enhance economic efficiency and flexibility, and draw up a political and strategic scheme to strengthen the adaptability of private industrial sector facing the new international economic and business environment.
254 pages., 76 refs., 41 figs., 23 tabs.
Language : Korean |
