| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| Reading China: Predicting policy change with machine learning | |
| Weifeng Zhong; Julian TszKin Chan | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-10-22 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Editor’s note: This paper has been updated from the original version posted in October 2018. Abstract For the first time in the literature, we develop a quantitative indicator of the Chinese government’s policy priorities over a long period of time, which we call the Policy Change Index (PCI) for China. The PCI is a leading indicator of policy changes that covers the period from 1951 to the third quarter of 2018, and it can be updated in the future. It is designed with two building blocks: the full text of the People’s Daily — the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China — as input data and a set of machine learning techniques to detect changes in how this newspaper prioritizes policy issues. Due to the unique role of the People’s Daily in China’s propaganda system, detecting changes in this newspaper allows us to predict changes in China’s policies. The construction of the PCI does not require the understanding of the Chinese text, which suggests a wide range of applications in other settings, such as predicting changes in other (ex-)Communist regimes’ policies, measuring decentralization in central-local government relations, quantifying media bias in democratic countries, and predicting changes in lawmakers’ voting behavior and in judges’ ideological leaning. Read the full PDF here. Website for this research project Source code for this research project |
| 主题 | Economics |
| 标签 | Artificial intelligence ; China ; Communist Party ; Media and Technology ; Policy Change Index (PCI) |
| URL | https://www.aei.org/research-products/working-paper/reading-china-predicting-policy-change-with-machine-learning/ |
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/207392 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Weifeng Zhong,Julian TszKin Chan. Reading China: Predicting policy change with machine learning. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Reading-China-AEI-WP（990KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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