全球智库信息集成服务系统

This document describes the structure of the CMCC Seasonal Prediction System (hereafter CMCC-SPS) developed at CMCC, the various initialization methods and the experiments performed with the most recent version. The CMCC-SPS has been used to perform the CliPAS (Climate Prediction and its Applications to Society) ISO (Intra-Seasonal Oscillation) hind-casts experiments. This report is focused on the current CMCC-SPS version that includes an atmospheric offline initialization tool, other than the ocean initial state which had been initialized in the first version. A set of retrospective forecasts was performed for the period 1989-2010.
Every year, the model is restarted four times with re-analysis initial conditions, and then integrated for 6 months. Here we provide some preliminary results from this forecasting experiment.