全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Estimating global-local dynamics of land use systems by downscaling from GLOBIOM model.

G2TT

来源类型	Book Section
	Estimating global-local dynamics of land use systems by downscaling from GLOBIOM model.
	Ermoliev Y; Ermolieva T; Havlik P; Mosnier A; Leclère D; Obersteiner M; Kostyuchenko Y; Zagorodny, AG; Ermoliev, YM; Bogdanov, VL
发表日期	2014
出处	Integrated Management, Security and Robustness. Eds. Zagorodny, AG , Ermoliev, YM & Bogdanov, VL , NASU & Innovation Center of the NASU. ISBN 978-966-02-7376-4
出版年	2014
语种	英语
摘要	High spatial resolution land use and cover change projections are one of the crucial inputs required by Global Circulation Models. They can be effectively used for the assessment of local carbon and greenhouse-gas (GHG) stocks and fluxes in various ecosystems. However to produce these future land cover maps directly with a global economic land use planning model remains a challenge. Although GIS provides detailed geo-physical information, the socio-economic data on driving forces usually exist only on aggregate level. We propose a model fusion involving two interlinked stages: calculation of regional projections by using a global dynamic model GLOBIOM and proper dynamic downscaling method allowing to obtain the required spatially resolved land use and cover change projections. The proposed procedure allows incorporating data derived from satellite images, statistics, expert opinions, as well as model-derived data from global land use models. The two interlinked models bring consistent results between large scale land use change processes and local dynamics, as illustrated by projections for China, Canada, Brazil, US, Ukraine, Russia. There are connections of proposed entropy-based downscaling approach with a fundamental maximum likelihood method proposed for traditional statistical estimation problems. In many practical applications, available prior distributions may not be known exactly, therefore, we develop a new general probabilistic approach to achieve downscaling results robust with respect to a set of prior distributions. This method generalizes ideas of robust statistics for new estimation problems without real repetitive observations of uncertainties.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11067/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/134314
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ermoliev Y,Ermolieva T,Havlik P,et al. Estimating global-local dynamics of land use systems by downscaling from GLOBIOM model.. 2014.