全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Ways to improve population forecasting: What should be done differently in the future?

G2TT

来源类型	Book Section
	Ways to improve population forecasting: What should be done differently in the future?
	Ahlburg DA; Lutz W; Vaupel JW; Lutz, W.; Vaupel, J.W.; Ahlburg, D.A.
发表日期	1999
出处	Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Eds. Lutz, W. , Vaupel, J.W. & Ahlburg, D.A. , New York: Population Council.
出版年	1999
语种	英语
摘要	To improve population forecasting in the future, demographers should conduct more thorough assessments of the accuracy of past projections. Research should also focus on making greater use of: (1) models that include marriage, divorce, cohabitation, morbidity, and other demographic events that influence fertility, mortality, and migration as well as models that break populations down by educational achievement, employment status, and other variables; (2) models that take account of economic, social, and environmental dynamics, including integrated structural models and models with constraints; and (3) forecasting approaches that systematically quantify uncertainty. A further area that requires rethinking is the appropriate use of expert judgment in population projections. Finally, new ways need to be developed for distributing software for making population forecasts and for disseminating the results of alternative forecasts.
主题	World Population (POP)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5796/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/133602
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ahlburg DA,Lutz W,Vaupel JW,et al. Ways to improve population forecasting: What should be done differently in the future?. 1999.