| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-019-09357-w |
| Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery. | |
| Klimek P; Poledna S; Thurner S | |
| 发表日期 | 2019 |
| 出处 | Nature Communications 10 (1): e1677 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks. Here we focus on resilience as a nonequilibrium property of networked production systems and develop a linear response theory for input-output economics. By calibrating the framework to data from 56 industrial sectors in 43 countries between 2000 and 2014, we find that the susceptibility of individual industrial sectors to economic shocks varies greatly across countries, sectors, and time. We show that susceptibility-based growth predictions that take sector- and country-specific recovery into account, outperform-by far-standard econometric models. Our results are analytically rigorous, empirically testable, and flexible enough to address policy-relevant scenarios. We illustrate the latter by estimating the impact of recently imposed tariffs on US imports (steel and aluminum) on specific sectors across European countries. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) ; Risk & ; Resilience (RISK) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15851/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131630 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Klimek P,Poledna S,Thurner S. Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery.. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| s41467-019-09357-w.p（1059KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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