全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1007/s10584-017-2131-9
	Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation.
	Zhou Q; Hanasaki N; Fujimori S; Masaki Y; Hijioka Y
发表日期	2018
出处	Climatic Change 147 (1-2): 77-90
出版年	2018
语种	英语
摘要	Hydropower generation plays a key role in mitigating GHG emissions from the overall power supply. Although the maximum achievable hydropower generation (MAHG) will be affected by climate change, it is seldom incorporated in integrated assessment models. In this study, we first used the H08 global hydrological model to project MAHG under two physical climate change scenarios. Then, we used the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium integrated assessment model to quantify the economic consequences of the presence or absence of mitigation policy on hydropower generation. This approach enabled us to quantify the physical impacts of climate change and the effect of mitigation policy—together and in isolation—on hydropower generation and the economy, both globally and regionally. Although there was little overall global change, we observed substantial differences among regions in the MAHG average change (from − 71% in Middle East to 14% in Former Soviet Union in RCP8.5). We found that the magnitude of changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) was small negative (positive) in Brazil (Canada) by 2100, for the no mitigation policy scenario. These consequences were intensified with the implementation of mitigation policies that enhanced the price competitiveness of hydropower against fossil fuel-powered technologies. Overall, our results suggested that there would be no notable globally aggregated impacts on GDP by 2100 because the positive effects in some regions were canceled out by negative effects in other regions.
主题	Energy (ENE) ; Water (WAT)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15077/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131447
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou Q,Hanasaki N,Fujimori S,et al. Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation.. 2018.