| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6 |
| A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. | |
| Bento N; Boza-Kiss B; McCollum D | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出处 | Nature Energy 3 (6): 517-525 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies. |
| 主题 | Air Quality & ; Greenhouse Gases (AIR) ; Energy (ENE) ; Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) |
| 关键词 | Energy modelling Socioeconomic scenarios |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15301/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131267 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bento N,Boza-Kiss B,McCollum D. A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies.. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| FINAL_LED_MS_REVISED（614KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
