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来源类型 | Article |
规范类型 | 其他 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.10.018 |
Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret. | |
Rezai A; van der Ploeg F | |
发表日期 | 2017 |
出处 | Energy Economics 68: 4-16 |
出版年 | 2017 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Temperature responses and optimal climate policies depend crucially on the choice of a particular climate model. To illustrate, the temperature responses to given emission reduction paths implied by the climate modules of the well-known integrated assessments models DICE, FUND and PAGE are described and compared. A dummy temperature module based on the climate denialists' view is added. Using a simple welfare-maximising growth model of the global economy, the sensitivity of the optimal carbon price, renewable energy subsidy and energy transition to each of these climate models is discussed. The paper then derives max-min, max-max and min-max regret policies to deal with this particular form of climate (model) uncertainty and with climate scepticism. The max-min or min-max regret climate policies rely on a non-sceptic view of global warming and lead to a substantial and moderate amount of caution, respectively. The max-max leads to no climate policies in line with the view of climate sceptics. |
主题 | Risk & ; Resilience (RISK) ; Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) |
关键词 | Carbon price Renewable energy subsidy Temperature modules Climate model uncertainty Climate sceptics Max-min Max-max Min-max regret |
URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14966/ |
来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/131157 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rezai A,van der Ploeg F. Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret.. 2017. |
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