| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.001 |
| Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies. | |
| Bertram C; Johnson N; Luderer G; Riahi K; Isaac M; Eom J | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 (Part A): 62-72 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Stringent long-term climate targets necessitate a limit on cumulative emissions in this century for which sufficient policy signals are lacking. Using nine energy-economy models, we explore how policies pursued during the next two decades impact long-term transformation pathways towards stringent long-term climate targets. Less stringent near-term policies (i.e., those with larger emissions) consume more of the long-term cumulative emissions budget in the 2010-2030 period, which increases the likelihood of overshooting the budget and the urgency of reducing GHG emissions after 2030. Furthermore, the larger near-term GHG emissions associated with less stringent policies are generated primarily by additional coal-based electricity generation. Therefore, to be successful in meeting the long-term target despite near-term emissions reductions that are weaker than those implied by cost-optimal mitigation pathways, models must prematurely retire significant coal capacity while rapidly ramping up low-carbon technologies between 2030 and 2050 and remove large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere in the latter half of the century. While increased energy efficiency lowers mitigation costs considerably, even with weak near-term policies, it does not substantially reduce the short-term reliance on coal electricity. However, increased energy efficiency does allow the energy system more flexibility in mitigating emissions and, thus, facilitates the post-2030 transition. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) |
| 关键词 | Climate change mitigation Energy systems modeling Energy efficiency Carbon dioxide emissions AMPERE Integrated assessment |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11542/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130154 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bertram C,Johnson N,Luderer G,et al. Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 1-s2.0-S004016251300（1350KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
