全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.agsy.2010.11.003
	Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption.
	Schneider UA; Havlik P; Schmid E; Valin H; Mosnier A; Obersteiner M; Bottcher H
发表日期	2011
出处	Agricultural Systems 104 (2): 204-215
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) ; Forestry (FOR)
关键词	Food security Population growth Irrigation water scarcity Income development Engel curve Agricultural sector optimization
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9644/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129352
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schneider UA,Havlik P,Schmid E,et al. Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption.. 2011.