全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003
	The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation.
	van Vuuren DP; Isaac M; Kundzewicz ZW; Arnell NW; Barker T; Criqui P; Berkhout F; Hilderink H
发表日期	2011
出处	Global Environmental Change 21 (2): 575-591
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 degrees Celsius by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 degrees Celsius increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 degrees Celsius or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.
主题	Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) ; Risk & ; Resilience (RISK)
关键词	Scenarios Integrated assessment Climate change Mitigation Adaptation Climate impacts
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9601/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129313
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Vuuren DP,Isaac M,Kundzewicz ZW,et al. The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation.. 2011.