全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Emission pathways consistent with a 2 degree C global temperature limit.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1038/nclimate1258
	Emission pathways consistent with a 2 degree C global temperature limit.
	Rogelj J; Hare W; Lowe J; van Vuuren DP; Riahi K; Matthews B; Hanaoka T; Jiang K
发表日期	2011
出处	Nature Climate Change 1 (8): 413-418
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	In recent years, international climate policy has increasingly focused on limiting temperature rise, as opposed to achieving greenhouse-gas-concentration-related objectives. The agreements reached at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Cancun in 2010 recognize that countries should take urgent action to limit the increase in global average temperature to less than 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial levels. If this is to be achieved, policymakers need robust information about the amounts of future greenhouse-gas emissions that are consistent with such temperature limits. This, in turn, requires an understanding of both the technical and economic implications of reducing emissions and the processes that link emissions to temperature. Here we consider both of these aspects by reanalysing a large set of published emission scenarios from integrated assessment models in a risk-based climate modelling framework. We find that in the set of scenarios with a "likely" (greater than 66%) chance of staying below 2 degrees C, emissions peak between 2010 and 2020 and fall to a median level of 44 Gt of CO2 equivalent in 2020 (compared with estimated median emissions across the scenario set of 48 Gt of CO2 equivalent in 2010). Our analysis confirms that if the mechanisms needed to enable an early peak in global emissions followed by steep reductions are not put in place, there is a significant risk that the 2 degree C target will not be achieved.
主题	Energy (ENE) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
关键词	Atmospheric science Interdisciplinary studies Mitigation Policy
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9483/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129216
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rogelj J,Hare W,Lowe J,et al. Emission pathways consistent with a 2 degree C global temperature limit.. 2011.