全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Dimensions of global population projections: What do we know about future population trends and structures?

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1098/rstb.2010.0133
	Dimensions of global population projections: What do we know about future population trends and structures?
	Lutz W; KC S
发表日期	2010
出处	Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365 (1554): 2779-2791
出版年	2010
语种	英语
摘要	The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8 -10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the poulation and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.
主题	World Population (POP)
关键词	world population population increase population decline dimensions of population projections age structure level of educational attainment
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9208/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129036
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lutz W,KC S. Dimensions of global population projections: What do we know about future population trends and structures?. 2010.

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