全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): A dynamic model of drug initiation: Implications for treatment and drug control.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/S0025-5564(99)00016-4
	A dynamic model of drug initiation: Implications for treatment and drug control.
	Behrens DA; Caulkins JP; Tragler G; Haunschmied JL; Feichtinger G
发表日期	1999
出处	Mathematical Biosciences 159 (1): 1-20
出版年	1999
语种	英语
摘要	We set up a time-continuous version of the first-order difference equation model of cocaine use introduced by Everingham and Rydell [S.S. Everingham, C.P. Rydell, Modeling the Demand for Cocaine, MR-332-ONDCP/A/DPRC, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 1994] and extend it by making initiation an endogenous function of prevalence. This function reflects both the epidemic spread of drug use as users infect' non-users and Musto's [D.F. Musto, The American Disease: Origins of Narcotic Control, Oxford University, New York, 1987] hypothesis that drug epidemics die out when a new generation is deterred from initiating drug use by observing the ill effects manifest among heavy users. Analyzing the model's dynamics suggests that drug prevention can temper drug prevalence and consumption, but that drug treatment's effectiveness depends critically on the stage in the epidemic in which it is employed. Reducing the number of heavy users in the early stages of an epidemic can be counter-productive if it masks the risks of drug use and, thereby, removes a disincentive to initiation. This strong dependence of an intervention's effectiveness on the state of the dynamic system illustrates the pitfalls of applying a static control policy in a dynamic context.
主题	World Population (POP)
关键词	Non-linear dynamic systems Hopf bifurcation Illicit drugs
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5745/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/127854
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Behrens DA,Caulkins JP,Tragler G,et al. A dynamic model of drug initiation: Implications for treatment and drug control.. 1999.