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来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Interim Report) |
规范类型 | 报告 |
New Evidence in Technology Scaling Dynamics and the Role of the Formative Phase. | |
Bento N | |
发表日期 | 2013 |
出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-13-004 |
出版年 | 2013 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This paper presents the latest update for historical scaling dynamics research including new technoloies such as general purpose technologies (e.g., steam engines) and small end-use technologies (e.g.,cellphones, e-bikes). Scaling refers to technology growth that is rapid and extensive, occurring at different levels, both unit and industry. It also studies the importance of the formative phase in the historical diffusion of energy technologies. So, what are the characteristics of the formative phase in the case of fast and intense adoptions? What is the infuence of the formative phase in the overall diffusion? Empirical analysis uses logistic models to exlore the growth of energy technologies observed historically. The formative phase is defined here as the early stage of diffusion before technology up-scales at unit level; the operational critera adoped is that formative phase ends when diffusion reaches 10% of cumulative total unit numbers. The hisorical evidence confirms that larger transitions require more time for experimentation and maturation in the formative periods, especially in the case of complex innovations with high infrastrcture needs. In addition, small size technologies with high turnover rates present the fastest diffusion. Moreresearch is needed to refine the definition of the moment when the technology completes the formativ phase and acquires enough maturity to pass on to mass-commercialization. |
主题 | Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) |
URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10752/ |
来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/125978 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bento N. New Evidence in Technology Scaling Dynamics and the Role of the Formative Phase.. 2013. |
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文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
IR-13-004.pdf(1629KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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