| 来源类型 | External Publications |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C | |
| Rogelj; Joeri & Popp; Alexander & V. Calvin; Katherine & Luderer; Gunnar & Emmerling; Johannes & Gernaat; David & Fujimori; Shinichiro & Strefler; Jessica & Hasegawa; Tomoko & Marangoni; Giacomo & Krey; Volker & Kriegler; Elmar & Riahi; Keywan & Vuuren; D | |
| 发表日期 | 2018 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios. |
| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/external-publications/scenarios-towards-limiting-global-mean-temperature-increase-below-1-5-c/ |
| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118755 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rogelj,Joeri & Popp,Alexander & V. Calvin,et al. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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