全球智库信息集成服务系统

Key Findings

1. Although China continues to lag behind the United States in terms of aggregate military hardware and operational skills, it has improved its capabilities relative to those of the United States in many critical areas. Moreover, China does not need to catch up fully to the United States to challenge the U.S. ability to conduct effective military operations near the Chinese mainland.
2. China's ability to threaten air bases, challenge U.S. air superiority, and attack U.S. aircraft carriers is of particular concern.
3. Despite overall negative trends, the U.S. military has maintained — or perhaps even extended — its relative lead in some operational categories.
4. Nevertheless, if current trends continue, the frontier for U.S. dominance in Asia will progressively recede as China's ability to project power improves.
5. The United States should adjust operational concepts, force structure, and diplomacy to stabilize the balance of power and strengthen deterrence.

Over the past two decades, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. Although China continues to lag behind the United States in terms of aggregate military hardware and operational skills, it has improved its capabilities relative to those of the United States in many critical areas. Moreover, China does not need to catch up fully to the United States to challenge the U.S. ability to conduct effective military operations near the Chinese mainland. Ensuring an adequate defense and deterrent capability in the face of these trends will require careful consideration of U.S. strategy, procurement priorities, and relations with regional allies.