G2TT
来源类型Research Reports
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR2477
ISBN9781977400536
来源IDRR-2477-A
National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't
Michael J. McNerney; Ben Connable; S. Rebecca Zimmerman; Natasha Lander; Marek N. Posard; Jasen J. Castillo; Dan Madden; Ilana Blum; Aaron Frank; Benjamin J. Fernandes; et al.
发表日期2018
出版年2018
页码154
语种英语
结论

National will to fight has been insufficiently analyzed, but RAND Arroyo Center's multi-method research has identified some key variables to help understand and influence it

  • Will to fight is poorly analyzed and the least understood aspect of war.
  • A country with more factors in its favor (e.g., high stakes, strong cohesion, popular support) should have stronger will to fight and thus a higher chance of victory.
  • Political context (i.e., government type and national identity) plays an underlying but important role in strengthening or weakening will to fight. The research supports the proposition that strong democracies and totalitarian states are better able to maintain will to fight (through very different means) compared with democracies in turmoil or states with a mix of democratic and autocratic traits.
  • The influence of economic variables on will to fight depends on a government's alliances and its engagement with other countries. A country's economic dependency on and support from its allies often matter more than economic pressures from an adversary.
  • The effective use of engagement and information (internally directed indoctrination and externally directed messaging) can greatly influence will to fight and thus should improve the chances of victory. These mechanisms are most effective before a conflict begins.
  • When will to fight is evenly matched, superior military capabilities and infliction of greater casualties should lead to victory — or stalemate. In some scenarios, however, the infliction of casualties is actually more likely to strengthen an adversary's will to fight than to weaken it.
摘要
  • U.S. Army and other leaders should undertake assessments of national will to fight in potential wartime allies and adversaries.
  • If leaders wish to incorporate considerations of will to fight into future analysis, they will need to update strategic guidance documents and military doctrine.
  • U.S. Army and other leaders should incorporate will to fight considerations into international engagements, from high-level political discussions to multinational military exercises and tactical training events.
  • For the U.S. Army to help guide U.S. government efforts to operate more effectively in the information space, Army and other leaders should understand and influence the indoctrination and messaging efforts of other countries.
主题Civil-Military Relations ; Military Force Deployment ; Military Strategy ; Psychological Warfare ; Threat Assessment ; United States Army ; Wargaming
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2477.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108843
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GB/T 7714
Michael J. McNerney,Ben Connable,S. Rebecca Zimmerman,et al. National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't. 2018.
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