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China's Approach to Nuclear Deterrence Has Been Broadly Consistent Since Its First Nuclear Test in 1964

• China has, however, recently accelerated nuclear force building and modernization.

Chinese Nuclear Strategists Still Key Primarily on Nuclear Developments in the United States

• Strategists are especially concerned about the development of U.S. missile defenses and conventional prompt global strike capabilities.
• But planners are also concerned about the growth of nuclear inventories in Asia and the complex nuclear dynamics emerging there.
• Some strategists say privately that China might not accept a push from India for nuclear parity, should New Delhi embark on such a course.

Bureaucratic Processes and Politics Are Likely to Affect the Development of Chinese Nuclear Forces and Thinking

• Civilian leaders are reportedly less involved than they once were in the details of decisionmaking about nuclear research, development, and production.
• The nuclear constituency within the PLA is also gaining increased status and voice.
• There is no firewall between China's conventional and nuclear missile forces, and technologies and practices developed for the former are already being applied to the nuclear forces.
• In the future, this may give China some limited counterforce capability.

China Is Likely to Increase Emphasis on Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Forces in the Coming Years

• Although unlikely to change formal policy formulations, China may adjust its definitions of key terms or add caveats.
• It may, for example, hedge its language on no-first-use to include a conventional attack on its nuclear forces as "first use," thus permitting a nuclear response.