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International cooperation

• Defence may be less immediately affected by Brexit than areas such as labour policy or trade. Much international defence cooperation takes place through NATO or bilaterally — as will remain the case after the UK leaves the EU.
• Analysis highlights the need for sustainable post-Brexit solutions for defence and security. This will require effective compromise and continued engagement between the UK and EU, which have both benefited from information-sharing, the joint work of bodies like Europol, and use of the European Arrest Warrant.

Strategic ambitions

• Nonetheless, Brexit will require that both the UK and EU re-evaluate their strategic goals, what role they want to play in the world, and whether they have the capabilities and collaborative frameworks needed to achieve them.

Future of EU defence and security

• The loss of the UK is a significant loss for the EU on defence. Some estimate that Brexit could reduce the EU's defence capabilities by a quarter. EU leaders are now working on plans to promote more EU defence integration, perhaps through a European operational headquarters — a plan long blocked by the UK while an EU member.

Regional implications

• There are also important national and regional complications. France and Spain, for instance, are likely to reassess border relations at Calais and Gibraltar. For the UK, there are unique concerns facing Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Integrating defence and security into Brexit negotiations

• Unlike in some other areas of policy, the UK is seen as a net contributor to European security and defence. This raises difficult questions for both sides about whether, when and how to leverage this in wider Brexit negotiations. Both sides risk becoming weaker and less secure if Brexit talks provoke a 'zero-sum' approach or a messy divorce.