全球智库信息集成服务系统

Decision Analysis and Support Frameworks and Indicators Need to Be Tailored to Each Individual Community

• Although some general frameworks and indicator systems are portable across communities, they must be adapted on a case-by-case basis to be useful.

As the Resilience Paradigm Has Grown, So Have Decision Support Systems and Tools and the Thinking About the Decisions Needed in the First Place

• Decision support tools have moved from basic physical models, including maps and tabletop demonstrations and informed by historical flood patterns and basic geophysical measurements, to sophisticated hydrodynamic simulations that can produce detailed snapshots of expected property damage and infrastructure performance under thousands of futures that explore climate and other uncertainties.
• In the United States and in many other parts of the world, the idea that government experts should design and harden infrastructure to protect citizens from flooding has shifted to a model of resilience and robustness, based not just on hard infrastructure but also on investments in natural and social capital that enable communities to mitigate impacts of flood events and recover more quickly.
• Deep uncertainty is increasingly appreciated as an important aspect of risk analysis and risk management. This is particularly true as we enter an era of changing rainfall patterns, storm intensities, and sea levels, wherein historical patterns might no longer be reliable predictors of future conditions.