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Increasing Urbanization May Fuel Anti-American Sentiment in the Near Term

• Urbanization is often accompanied by increased access to national and international news.
• In Pakistan, news about the United States typically focuses on inflammatory topics, such as drones, Guantanamo, and conflict in the Middle East.

Increasing Urbanization May Fuel Radical Transnational Islamist Groups

• Pakistanis working in large cities are exposed to forms of Islam quite different from the Sufi-inflected practice of their ancestral villages.

Increasing Urbanization Is Likely to Change the Dynamic of Counterterrorism

• In recent years, the locus of U.S. counterterrorism operations has often been lightly settled areas in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
• The type of counterterrorism operations favored in rural areas (particularly drone strikes) is virtually impossible in an urban setting, where the tactics and strategy required are far different.

Demography and Urbanization Are Likely to Increase Demand for Political Reform

• While rural citizens might have suffered poor governance in silence, their urbanized children are less likely to do so.
• In the near term, demand for accountability decreases the ability of Pakistani leaders to pursue policies (such as tacit support for U.S. drone strikes) that are highly unpopular.
• In the long term, however, the trend may prove beneficial to U.S. security interests.