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Three Driving Forces Influence Which Potential Future Will Come to Pass

• Three critical uncertainties, or driving forces, caused one path to emerge over another: (1) the price of oil, (2) the development of environmental regulation, and (3) the amount of highway revenues and expenditures.

Transportation Planners Can Use These Tools in Three Main Ways

• They can identify early warning signs, or indicators, to anticipate and prepare for likely change.
• They can determine opportunities, risks, and contingencies that may arise because these scenarios are useful in acknowledging and representing systemic risk (that is, risk created by combinations of factors).
• They can review strategic options in the context of the different scenarios.