| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28415 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28415 |
| Economic Fluctuations and Pseudo-Wealth | |
| Joseph E. Stiglitz | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-02-01 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | What can explain the large changes in aggregate demand that occur in the absence of any seemingly corresponding shock to the underlying state variables of the economy? We show that macroeconomic volatility can arise from dispersions of beliefs among agents. These dispersions give rise to bets and other trades in speculative assets. Such trades give rise to pseudo-wealth, wealth that individuals believe they have on the basis of expectations of returns on these gambles. In the aggregate, when there are enough opportunities for trade and large enough dispersions in beliefs, this perceived wealth may be dangerously untethered from either market wealth or the real wealth of the economy. Given the increased dispersion in beliefs that naturally arises from unprecedented shocks, the theory of pseudo-wealth provides new understandings of both the origins of unanticipated fluctuations and their magnitude, markedly different from prevailing theories grounded in common knowledge and beliefs among individuals. This paper explores the empirical and theoretical underpinnings of pseudo-wealth, links the concept to observed macroeconomic fluctuations, and lays out a research agenda that might help us better understand the role of pseudo-wealth and the circumstances in which it is pronounced. |
| 主题 | Other ; History of Economic Thought ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Money and Interest Rates ; Fiscal Policy ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28415 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586087 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joseph E. Stiglitz. Economic Fluctuations and Pseudo-Wealth. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28415.pdf（390KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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