| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w16163
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 16163
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| A Review of War Costs in Iraq and Afghanistan |
| Ryan D. Edwards
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| 发表日期 | 2010-07-08
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| 出版年 | 2010
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | As of this writing, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are in their eighth and tenth years, having accrued nearly a trillion dollars in direct military costs. I review the history of cost forecasts for these ongoing engagements, highlighting the differences across them in scope and accuracy, assessing the methods and practice of cost forecasting, and exploring the implications of the war costs themselves. Besides the unanticipated length and breadth of the military conflicts themselves, a related and equally important component of costs is the life cycle of costs associated with caring for veterans. The forecasts we have of such costs imply high levels of public spending per veteran and very high levels of costs associated with pain and suffering per veteran, as high as 10 to 25 percent of lifetime wealth. I also discuss the methods and motivations associated with war cost forecasts by comparing them with other types of aggregate forecasts, which are prone to similar types of errors. The history of war cost forecasts suggests that increasing their frequency and transparency may improve their usefulness in guiding policy. |
| 主题 | Public Economics
; National Fiscal Issues
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16163
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573837
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Ryan D. Edwards. A Review of War Costs in Iraq and Afghanistan. 2010.
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文件名：
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w16163.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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