| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13798 |
| DP13798 The macroeconomic impact of Trump | |
| Benjamin Born; Gernot Müller; Moritz Schularick; Petr Sedlacek | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-06-13 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Donald Trump was President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. During that time, except for the period since spring 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on economic activity, the US economy has been doing very well according to key indicators like the unemployment rate and GDP growth. Does Trump deserve credit for the booming economy? To address this question, we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved without Trump---we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the performance of the US economy during Trump's Presidency to this synthetic ``doppelganger''. There is little evidence for a Trump effect. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | President trump Macroeconomic performance Economic growth Stable genius Counterfactual Synthetic control method |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13798-2 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542669 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Benjamin Born,Gernot Müller,Moritz Schularick,et al. DP13798 The macroeconomic impact of Trump. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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