| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11352 |
| DP11352 The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation | |
| Laura Veldkamp; Venky Venkateswaran | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-10-22 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of GDP below pre-crisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with existing models. Our key premise is that agents don’t know the true distribution of shocks, but use data to estimate it non-parametrically. Then, transitory events, especially extreme ones, generate persistent changes in beliefs and macro outcomes. Embedding this mechanism in a neoclassical model, we find that it endogenously generates persistent drops in economic activity after tail events. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Stagnation Tail risk Propagation Belief-driven business cycles |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11352-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542083 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Laura Veldkamp,Venky Venkateswaran. DP11352 The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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