全球智库信息集成服务系统

President Biden this month announced a new COVID-19 goal: 160 million Americans fully vaccinated by July 4.

So, will Independence Day mark the date when normalcy returns in earnest? Should it? Already the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has announced new, relaxed mask guidelines. Many states are setting dates to lift remaining public health restrictions and “fully reopen”—even those that are falling behind on vaccinations.

RAND used its COVID-19 model to analyze what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if the restrictions—capacity limits on businesses, closed schools, mask mandates—all go away on July 4. In our model, any virus variant is presumed to be more transmissible, but not more deadly, and vaccines are assumed to be equally effective against a variant, as is currently the case for the strains circulating in Brazil and India. Our model is based on the age-population distribution and projected number of cases in California, but we expect these dynamics to hold across other states.

We simulated thousands of scenarios of how the pandemic potentially could unfold in the months ahead: Would new variants of the virus spread faster and further? Would vaccine hesitancy decrease? Each simulation produced projections for cases and deaths. For comparison, we grouped all these possible outcomes into two sets: Those in which Biden's target—about 60 percent of adults fully vaccinated—was met, versus with those in which vaccination rates fell short.

Here's what we saw: Fully reopening an economy before the target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year—nearly all of these deaths coming from the portion of the population that is still unvaccinated. Surges in cases and deaths were more probable, more severe, and occurred earlier.

Figure 1 shows the number of daily deaths per 100,000 population in those two sets of scenarios. The thick line represents the average outcome. The shaded regions show other possible—but decreasingly likely—outcomes. These results do not specifically represent any one state; instead, they model the effects of meeting Biden's target across a range of plausible scenarios.

Biden's Target Not Met (<60% Fully Vaccinated)

Biden's Target Met (>60% Fully Vaccinated)

Date	Meets Biden's Goal	Daily Deaths	Probability
7/4/21	FALSE	2.62E-07	0.05
7/4/21	FALSE	3.14E-07	0.1
7/4/21	FALSE	3.83E-07	0.2
7/4/21	FALSE	4.29E-07	0.3
7/4/21	FALSE	4.68E-07	0.4
7/4/21	FALSE	5.13E-07	0.5
7/4/21	FALSE	5.62E-07	0.6
7/4/21	FALSE	6.26E-07	0.7
7/4/21	FALSE	7.17E-07	0.8
7/4/21	FALSE	8.54E-07	0.9
7/4/21	FALSE	9.68E-07	0.95
7/4/21	TRUE	2.14E-07	0.05
7/4/21	TRUE	2.40E-07	0.1
7/4/21	TRUE	2.73E-07	0.2
7/4/21	TRUE	2.99E-07	0.3
7/4/21	TRUE	3.29E-07	0.4
7/4/21	TRUE	3.59E-07	0.5
7/4/21	TRUE	3.92E-07	0.6
7/4/21	TRUE	4.32E-07	0.7
7/4/21	TRUE	4.79E-07	0.8
7/4/21	TRUE	5.57E-07	0.9
7/4/21	TRUE	6.41E-07	0.95
7/9/21	FALSE	2.39E-07	0.05
7/9/21	FALSE	2.97E-07	0.1
7/9/21	FALSE	3.65E-07	0.2
7/9/21	FALSE	4.09E-07	0.3
7/9/21	FALSE	4.49E-07	0.4
7/9/21	FALSE	4.91E-07	0.5
7/9/21	FALSE	5.40E-07	0.6
7/9/21	FALSE	6.04E-07	0.7
7/9/21	FALSE	7.01E-07	0.8
7/9/21	FALSE	8.53E-07	0.9
7/9/21	FALSE	9.99E-07	0.95
7/9/21	TRUE	1.96E-07	0.05
7/9/21	TRUE	2.20E-07	0.1
7/9/21	TRUE	2.52E-07	0.2
7/9/21	TRUE	2.77E-07	0.3
7/9/21	TRUE	3.05E-07	0.4
7/9/21	TRUE	3.32E-07	0.5
7/9/21	TRUE	3.62E-07	0.6
7/9/21	TRUE	3.98E-07	0.7
7/9/21	TRUE	4.42E-07	0.8
7/9/21	TRUE	5.17E-07	0.9
7/9/21	TRUE	5.98E-07	0.95
7/16/21	FALSE	2.05E-07	0.05
7/16/21	FALSE	2.64E-07	0.1
7/16/21	FALSE	3.30E-07	0.2
7/16/21	FALSE	3.74E-07	0.3
7/16/21	FALSE	4.11E-07	0.4
7/16/21	FALSE	4.52E-07	0.5
7/16/21	FALSE	5.03E-07	0.6
7/16/21	FALSE	5.71E-07	0.7
7/16/21	FALSE	6.77E-07	0.8
7/16/21	FALSE	8.76E-07	0.9
7/16/21	FALSE	1.09E-06	0.95
7/16/21	TRUE	1.65E-07	0.05
7/16/21	TRUE	1.86E-07	0.1
7/16/21	TRUE	2.15E-07	0.2
7/16/21	TRUE	2.40E-07	0.3
7/16/21	TRUE	2.64E-07	0.4
7/16/21	TRUE	2.88E-07	0.5
7/16/21	TRUE	3.13E-07	0.6
7/16/21	TRUE	3.45E-07	0.7
7/16/21	TRUE	3.87E-07	0.8
7/16/21	TRUE	4.56E-07	0.9
7/16/21	TRUE	5.27E-07	0.95
7/23/21	FALSE	1.73E-07	0.05
7/23/21	FALSE	2.30E-07	0.1
7/23/21	FALSE	2.91E-07	0.2
7/23/21	FALSE	3.33E-07	0.3
7/23/21	FALSE	3.70E-07	0.4
7/23/21	FALSE	4.12E-07	0.5
7/23/21	FALSE	4.66E-07	0.6
7/23/21	FALSE	5.39E-07	0.7
7/23/21	FALSE	6.65E-07	0.8
7/23/21	FALSE	9.45E-07	0.9
7/23/21	FALSE	1.26E-06	0.95
7/23/21	TRUE	1.34E-07	0.05
7/23/21	TRUE	1.53E-07	0.1
7/23/21	TRUE	1.77E-07	0.2
7/23/21	TRUE	1.99E-07	0.3
7/23/21	TRUE	2.20E-07	0.4
7/23/21	TRUE	2.40E-07	0.5
7/23/21	TRUE	2.63E-07	0.6
7/23/21	TRUE	2.89E-07	0.7
7/23/21	TRUE	3.28E-07	0.8
7/23/21	TRUE	4.06E-07	0.9
7/23/21	TRUE	4.86E-07	0.95
7/30/21	FALSE	1.50E-07	0.05
7/30/21	FALSE	1.99E-07	0.1
7/30/21	FALSE	2.55E-07	0.2
7/30/21	FALSE	2.98E-07	0.3
7/30/21	FALSE	3.37E-07	0.4
7/30/21	FALSE	3.85E-07	0.5
7/30/21	FALSE	4.44E-07	0.6
7/30/21	FALSE	5.26E-07	0.7
7/30/21	FALSE	7.07E-07	0.8
7/30/21	FALSE	1.10E-06	0.9
7/30/21	FALSE	1.51E-06	0.95
7/30/21	TRUE	1.07E-07	0.05
7/30/21	TRUE	1.25E-07	0.1
7/30/21	TRUE	1.46E-07	0.2
7/30/21	TRUE	1.64E-07	0.3
7/30/21	TRUE	1.83E-07	0.4
7/30/21	TRUE	2.00E-07	0.5
7/30/21	TRUE	2.22E-07	0.6
7/30/21	TRUE	2.46E-07	0.7
7/30/21	TRUE	2.85E-07	0.8
7/30/21	TRUE	3.69E-07	0.9
7/30/21	TRUE	4.71E-07	0.95
8/6/21	FALSE	1.31E-07	0.05
8/6/21	FALSE	1.76E-07	0.1
8/6/21	FALSE	2.27E-07	0.2
8/6/21	FALSE	2.72E-07	0.3
8/6/21	FALSE	3.19E-07	0.4
8/6/21	FALSE	3.74E-07	0.5
8/6/21	FALSE	4.45E-07	0.6
8/6/21	FALSE	5.59E-07	0.7
8/6/21	FALSE	8.20E-07	0.8
8/6/21	FALSE	1.38E-06	0.9
8/6/21	FALSE	1.93E-06	0.95
8/6/21	TRUE	8.65E-08	0.05
8/6/21	TRUE	1.01E-07	0.1
8/6/21	TRUE	1.22E-07	0.2
8/6/21	TRUE	1.37E-07	0.3
8/6/21	TRUE	1.54E-07	0.4
8/6/21	TRUE	1.71E-07	0.5
8/6/21	TRUE	1.91E-07	0.6
8/6/21	TRUE	2.17E-07	0.7
8/6/21	TRUE	2.61E-07	0.8
8/6/21	TRUE	3.66E-07	0.9
8/6/21	TRUE	4.93E-07	0.95
8/13/21	FALSE	1.11E-07	0.05
8/13/21	FALSE	1.61E-07	0.1
8/13/21	FALSE	2.10E-07	0.2
8/13/21	FALSE	2.60E-07	0.3
8/13/21	FALSE	3.14E-07	0.4
8/13/21	FALSE	3.86E-07	0.5
8/13/21	FALSE	4.75E-07	0.6
8/13/21	FALSE	6.56E-07	0.7
8/13/21	FALSE	1.04E-06	0.8
8/13/21	FALSE	1.88E-06	0.9
8/13/21	FALSE	2.67E-06	0.95
8/13/21	TRUE	6.99E-08	0.05
8/13/21	TRUE	8.20E-08	0.1
8/13/21	TRUE	1.02E-07	0.2
8/13/21	TRUE	1.17E-07	0.3
8/13/21	TRUE	1.33E-07	0.4
8/13/21	TRUE	1.50E-07	0.5
8/13/21	TRUE	1.72E-07	0.6
8/13/21	TRUE	2.01E-07	0.7
8/13/21	TRUE	2.54E-07	0.8
8/13/21	TRUE	3.95E-07	0.9
8/13/21	TRUE	5.77E-07	0.95
8/20/21	FALSE	9.46E-08	0.05
8/20/21	FALSE	1.48E-07	0.1
8/20/21	FALSE	2.01E-07	0.2
8/20/21	FALSE	2.61E-07	0.3
8/20/21	FALSE	3.27E-07	0.4
8/20/21	FALSE	4.28E-07	0.5
8/20/21	FALSE	5.58E-07	0.6
8/20/21	FALSE	8.33E-07	0.7
8/20/21	FALSE	1.41E-06	0.8
8/20/21	FALSE	2.59E-06	0.9
8/20/21	FALSE	3.60E-06	0.95
8/20/21	TRUE	5.68E-08	0.05
8/20/21	TRUE	6.71E-08	0.1
8/20/21	TRUE	8.55E-08	0.2
8/20/21	TRUE	1.02E-07	0.3
8/20/21	TRUE	1.18E-07	0.4
8/20/21	TRUE	1.37E-07	0.5
8/20/21	TRUE	1.60E-07	0.6
8/20/21	TRUE	1.96E-07	0.7
8/20/21	TRUE	2.76E-07	0.8
8/20/21	TRUE	4.78E-07	0.9
8/20/21	TRUE	7.17E-07	0.95
8/27/21	FALSE	8.24E-08	0.05
8/27/21	FALSE	1.33E-07	0.1
8/27/21	FALSE	1.97E-07	0.2
8/27/21	FALSE	2.68E-07	0.3
8/27/21	FALSE	3.57E-07	0.4
8/27/21	FALSE	4.96E-07	0.5
8/27/21	FALSE	6.92E-07	0.6
8/27/21	FALSE	1.11E-06	0.7
8/27/21	FALSE	1.96E-06	0.8
8/27/21	FALSE	3.36E-06	0.9
8/27/21	FALSE	4.38E-06	0.95
8/27/21	TRUE	4.65E-08	0.05
8/27/21	TRUE	5.53E-08	0.1
8/27/21	TRUE	7.20E-08	0.2
8/27/21	TRUE	8.84E-08	0.3
8/27/21	TRUE	1.08E-07	0.4
8/27/21	TRUE	1.32E-07	0.5
8/27/21	TRUE	1.59E-07	0.6
8/27/21	TRUE	2.01E-07	0.7
8/27/21	TRUE	3.18E-07	0.8
8/27/21	TRUE	6.09E-07	0.9
8/27/21	TRUE	9.33E-07	0.95
9/3/21	FALSE	7.35E-08	0.05
9/3/21	FALSE	1.18E-07	0.1
9/3/21	FALSE	1.99E-07	0.2
9/3/21	FALSE	2.82E-07	0.3
9/3/21	FALSE	4.04E-07	0.4
9/3/21	FALSE	5.97E-07	0.5
9/3/21	FALSE	8.83E-07	0.6
9/3/21	FALSE	1.50E-06	0.7
9/3/21	FALSE	2.58E-06	0.8
9/3/21	FALSE	3.90E-06	0.9
9/3/21	FALSE	4.89E-06	0.95
9/3/21	TRUE	3.82E-08	0.05
9/3/21	TRUE	4.61E-08	0.1
9/3/21	TRUE	6.12E-08	0.2
9/3/21	TRUE	7.84E-08	0.3
9/3/21	TRUE	1.02E-07	0.4
9/3/21	TRUE	1.32E-07	0.5
9/3/21	TRUE	1.65E-07	0.6
9/3/21	TRUE	2.22E-07	0.7
9/3/21	TRUE	3.95E-07	0.8
9/3/21	TRUE	8.05E-07	0.9
9/3/21	TRUE	1.24E-06	0.95
9/10/21	FALSE	6.60E-08	0.05
9/10/21	FALSE	1.07E-07	0.1
9/10/21	FALSE	1.99E-07	0.2
9/10/21	FALSE	3.04E-07	0.3
9/10/21	FALSE	4.67E-07	0.4
9/10/21	FALSE	7.22E-07	0.5
9/10/21	FALSE	1.13E-06	0.6
9/10/21	FALSE	1.98E-06	0.7
9/10/21	FALSE	3.06E-06	0.8
9/10/21	FALSE	4.19E-06	0.9
9/10/21	FALSE	5.09E-06	0.95
9/10/21	TRUE	3.15E-08	0.05
9/10/21	TRUE	3.83E-08	0.1
9/10/21	TRUE	5.29E-08	0.2
9/10/21	TRUE	7.10E-08	0.3
9/10/21	TRUE	9.90E-08	0.4
9/10/21	TRUE	1.36E-07	0.5
9/10/21	TRUE	1.80E-07	0.6
9/10/21	TRUE	2.59E-07	0.7
9/10/21	TRUE	4.98E-07	0.8
9/10/21	TRUE	1.06E-06	0.9
9/10/21	TRUE	1.67E-06	0.95
9/17/21	FALSE	6.05E-08	0.05
9/17/21	FALSE	9.66E-08	0.1
9/17/21	FALSE	1.98E-07	0.2
9/17/21	FALSE	3.34E-07	0.3
9/17/21	FALSE	5.43E-07	0.4
9/17/21	FALSE	8.79E-07	0.5
9/17/21	FALSE	1.44E-06	0.6
9/17/21	FALSE	2.38E-06	0.7
9/17/21	FALSE	3.23E-06	0.8
9/17/21	FALSE	4.22E-06	0.9
9/17/21	FALSE	4.94E-06	0.95
9/17/21	TRUE	2.57E-08	0.05
9/17/21	TRUE	3.22E-08	0.1
9/17/21	TRUE	4.58E-08	0.2
9/17/21	TRUE	6.53E-08	0.3
9/17/21	TRUE	9.79E-08	0.4
9/17/21	TRUE	1.44E-07	0.5
9/17/21	TRUE	2.05E-07	0.6
9/17/21	TRUE	3.20E-07	0.7
9/17/21	TRUE	6.32E-07	0.8
9/17/21	TRUE	1.38E-06	0.9
9/17/21	TRUE	2.17E-06	0.95
9/24/21	FALSE	5.48E-08	0.05
9/24/21	FALSE	8.87E-08	0.1
9/24/21	FALSE	1.95E-07	0.2
9/24/21	FALSE	3.65E-07	0.3
9/24/21	FALSE	6.21E-07	0.4
9/24/21	FALSE	1.05E-06	0.5
9/24/21	FALSE	1.77E-06	0.6
9/24/21	FALSE	2.53E-06	0.7
9/24/21	FALSE	3.18E-06	0.8
9/24/21	FALSE	4.01E-06	0.9
9/24/21	FALSE	4.51E-06	0.95
9/24/21	TRUE	2.14E-08	0.05
9/24/21	TRUE	2.70E-08	0.1
9/24/21	TRUE	3.97E-08	0.2
9/24/21	TRUE	6.09E-08	0.3
9/24/21	TRUE	9.96E-08	0.4
9/24/21	TRUE	1.59E-07	0.5
9/24/21	TRUE	2.37E-07	0.6
9/24/21	TRUE	3.98E-07	0.7
9/24/21	TRUE	8.14E-07	0.8
9/24/21	TRUE	1.77E-06	0.9
9/24/21	TRUE	2.50E-06	0.95
10/1/21	FALSE	4.98E-08	0.05
10/1/21	FALSE	8.06E-08	0.1
10/1/21	FALSE	1.89E-07	0.2
10/1/21	FALSE	4.03E-07	0.3
10/1/21	FALSE	7.00E-07	0.4
10/1/21	FALSE	1.24E-06	0.5
10/1/21	FALSE	1.94E-06	0.6
10/1/21	FALSE	2.47E-06	0.7
10/1/21	FALSE	2.99E-06	0.8
10/1/21	FALSE	3.60E-06	0.9
10/1/21	FALSE	4.07E-06	0.95
10/1/21	TRUE	1.75E-08	0.05
10/1/21	TRUE	2.26E-08	0.1
10/1/21	TRUE	3.55E-08	0.2
10/1/21	TRUE	5.79E-08	0.3
10/1/21	TRUE	1.02E-07	0.4
10/1/21	TRUE	1.78E-07	0.5
10/1/21	TRUE	2.76E-07	0.6
10/1/21	TRUE	4.98E-07	0.7
10/1/21	TRUE	1.04E-06	0.8
10/1/21	TRUE	2.05E-06	0.9
10/1/21	TRUE	2.85E-06	0.95
10/8/21	FALSE	4.39E-08	0.05
10/8/21	FALSE	7.29E-08	0.1
10/8/21	FALSE	1.83E-07	0.2
10/8/21	FALSE	4.30E-07	0.3
10/8/21	FALSE	7.73E-07	0.4
10/8/21	FALSE	1.37E-06	0.5
10/8/21	FALSE	1.89E-06	0.6
10/8/21	FALSE	2.28E-06	0.7
10/8/21	FALSE	2.70E-06	0.8
10/8/21	FALSE	3.23E-06	0.9
10/8/21	FALSE	3.82E-06	0.95
10/8/21	TRUE	1.45E-08	0.05
10/8/21	TRUE	1.92E-08	0.1
10/8/21	TRUE	3.16E-08	0.2
10/8/21	TRUE	5.53E-08	0.3
10/8/21	TRUE	1.07E-07	0.4
10/8/21	TRUE	1.99E-07	0.5
10/8/21	TRUE	3.28E-07	0.6
10/8/21	TRUE	6.25E-07	0.7
10/8/21	TRUE	1.30E-06	0.8
10/8/21	TRUE	2.28E-06	0.9
10/8/21	TRUE	3.13E-06	0.95
10/15/21	FALSE	3.89E-08	0.05
10/15/21	FALSE	6.72E-08	0.1
10/15/21	FALSE	1.77E-07	0.2
10/15/21	FALSE	4.45E-07	0.3
10/15/21	FALSE	8.46E-07	0.4
10/15/21	FALSE	1.33E-06	0.5
10/15/21	FALSE	1.72E-06	0.6
10/15/21	FALSE	2.02E-06	0.7
10/15/21	FALSE	2.37E-06	0.8
10/15/21	FALSE	3.03E-06	0.9
10/15/21	FALSE	3.65E-06	0.95
10/15/21	TRUE	1.20E-08	0.05
10/15/21	TRUE	1.63E-08	0.1
10/15/21	TRUE	2.81E-08	0.2
10/15/21	TRUE	5.36E-08	0.3
10/15/21	TRUE	1.12E-07	0.4
10/15/21	TRUE	2.28E-07	0.5
10/15/21	TRUE	3.98E-07	0.6
10/15/21	TRUE	7.73E-07	0.7
10/15/21	TRUE	1.46E-06	0.8
10/15/21	TRUE	2.47E-06	0.9
10/15/21	TRUE	3.22E-06	0.95
10/22/21	FALSE	3.46E-08	0.05
10/22/21	FALSE	6.12E-08	0.1
10/22/21	FALSE	1.70E-07	0.2
10/22/21	FALSE	4.59E-07	0.3
10/22/21	FALSE	8.68E-07	0.4
10/22/21	FALSE	1.22E-06	0.5
10/22/21	FALSE	1.50E-06	0.6
10/22/21	FALSE	1.74E-06	0.7
10/22/21	FALSE	2.11E-06	0.8
10/22/21	FALSE	2.81E-06	0.9
10/22/21	FALSE	3.48E-06	0.95
10/22/21	TRUE	1.00E-08	0.05
10/22/21	TRUE	1.40E-08	0.1
10/22/21	TRUE	2.53E-08	0.2
10/22/21	TRUE	5.29E-08	0.3
10/22/21	TRUE	1.21E-07	0.4
10/22/21	TRUE	2.60E-07	0.5
10/22/21	TRUE	4.83E-07	0.6
10/22/21	TRUE	9.49E-07	0.7
10/22/21	TRUE	1.59E-06	0.8
10/22/21	TRUE	2.57E-06	0.9
10/22/21	TRUE	3.17E-06	0.95
10/29/21	FALSE	3.06E-08	0.05
10/29/21	FALSE	5.59E-08	0.1
10/29/21	FALSE	1.65E-07	0.2
10/29/21	FALSE	4.58E-07	0.3
10/29/21	FALSE	8.18E-07	0.4
10/29/21	FALSE	1.08E-06	0.5
10/29/21	FALSE	1.29E-06	0.6
10/29/21	FALSE	1.53E-06	0.7
10/29/21	FALSE	1.92E-06	0.8
10/29/21	FALSE	2.64E-06	0.9
10/29/21	FALSE	3.27E-06	0.95
10/29/21	TRUE	8.35E-09	0.05
10/29/21	TRUE	1.20E-08	0.1
10/29/21	TRUE	2.34E-08	0.2
10/29/21	TRUE	5.28E-08	0.3
10/29/21	TRUE	1.30E-07	0.4
10/29/21	TRUE	3.01E-07	0.5
10/29/21	TRUE	5.78E-07	0.6
10/29/21	TRUE	1.05E-06	0.7