A seized Ukrainian ship is towed by a Russian Coast Guard vessel out of the port in Kerch, near the bridge connecting the Russian mainland with the Crimean Peninsula. November 17, 2019. REUTERS/Alla Dmitrieva
After 358 days, three captured Ukrainian ships were finally released by the Russian government on November 19. The ships’ fate has been a major point of contention as the Ukrainian and Russian presidents prepare to meet for the first time in Paris next month.
Two gunboats, the Berdyansk and Nikopol, and the tugboat Yana Kapa, were seized along with twenty-four Ukrainian sailors by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) in a November 2018 attack widely seen as a violation of international law. The return of these boats to Ukrainian custody was met with glowing praise from French President Emmanuel Macron, who, following a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the move strengthened “the trust in the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine.”
With the Normandy Four summit now confirmed with
the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany on December 9 in Paris, the
timing of the release is noteworthy.
“The release of the three Ukrainian ships
involved in last year’s Kerch Strait incident was likely timed to demonstrate a
constructive stance on Moscow’s part prior to the Normandy Format meeting,”
said Alexander Vershbow, the former US ambassador to Russia and a distinguished
fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center. “This is standard practice
aimed at putting the onus on Kyiv to make the majority of the concessions in
the negotiations to end Russia’s undeclared war in the Donbas.”
Indeed, coverage in Western outlets has largely
followed this pattern, often taking the Kremlin’s stance at face value with
little context. The Telegraph called the move “an apparent bid to ease
tensions” with Ukraine. The New York
Times leads its coverage by noting that the return is “something Kyiv
wanted to happen before a four-way peace summit on eastern Ukraine next month
in Paris.”
The press forgot something significant in its coverage. Yes,
Ukraine has been calling for the return of these
ships for months, and yes their status would have been a serious obstacle to
peace talks, but the ships were illegally fired upon and seized while legally
traveling in what should have been safe waters. The 2018 attack so worried the
Ukrainian government that it declared martial law for thirty days and barred the entry of all Russian men,
fearing the formation of Russian militias ready to pave the way for a military
invasion.
The Kremlin violated international law by attacking a sovereign nation in one of the most brazen challenges to the rules-based international order seen in years. Then Moscow had the chutzpah to ignore the May ruling of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) that ordered the Russian government to return the captured sailors and vessels. In September, the twenty-four Ukrainian sailors, held hostage for ten months, were returned in a large prisoner swap—but Moscow decided to hold on to the ships.
So, congratulating it for returning what was
illegally seized is a hard case to make.
Even so, Russia appears to be moving into the
December 9 Normandy Four summit with a strong hand. Not only can it point to
its return of the ships and soldiers as signs of goodwill and examples of recent
concessions, it appears to have softened up France and Germany.
Macron has spent the last few months on a
veritable pro-Russia public relations campaign, saying in August that the
West’s alienation of Russia was “a profound
strategic mistake.” In September, he sent his foreign and defense ministers to
Moscow, ending a four-freeze on high-level visits originally imposed in
response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Germany, meanwhile, seems torn.
Chancellor Angela Merkel told The Guardian in May that Germany and the
European Union needed to stand up to Russia, but her numbered days in office soften what
punch this may have had in the past.
Other German leaders are
positioning themselves closer to Macron. “The time has come for the German
government to pressure the EU for a partial lifting of the sanctions [on
Russia],” longtime Christian Social Union politician Peter Ramsauer told
Reuters.
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Normally, Ukraine would be able
to count on seasoned US diplomats, dedicated to advocating for mutual Ukrainian
and US interests, to support Zelenskyy’s team behind the scenes when going into
a major summit like this one. But as impeachment sucks up all the oxygen in
Washington, newly vacant posts like that of special-envoy Kurt Volker remain
unfilled—and Zelenskyy’s kowtowing to US President Donald Trump in recently released phone call memos doesn’t inspire confidence in his
negotiation skills.
Zelenskyy was elected on a promise to end the war with Russia, and he’s taken serious heat for trying to deliver. Agreeing to the “Steinmeier Formula,” a map for how to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine, elicited some of the largest protests since the Euromaidan revolution.
Will the long-awaited return of
the Berdyansk, Nikopol, and Yana Kapa end up being a Russian tool to strongarm
Ukraine into further concessions at the Normandy Summit? Let’s hope that the
French see through the insincere gestures and Zelenskyy stands his ground.
Doug Klain is a project assistant with the
Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and Democratic Order Initiative. He tweets
@KlainGame.
Further reading
Tue, Oct 8, 2019
Angry crowds took to the streets to denounce the Steinmeier Formula, equating it with capitulation to Moscow. But is it? At this point, not enough is known about details of the agreement—or even if the agreement will hold—to reach a judgment.
UkraineAlert
by
Steven Pifer
Wed, Nov 13, 2019
The bottom line is anybody who believes Kyiv can negotiate anything with a foreign power that has no respect for Ukraine as a sovereign country and Ukrainians as a separate people is deluding themselves.
UkraineAlert
by
Taras Kuzio
Fri, Nov 1, 2019
The controversial natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany—Nord Stream 2—cleared its last obstacle this week.
UkraineAlert
by
Melinda Haring
The press forgot something significant in its coverage. Yes, Ukraine has been calling for the return of these ships for months, and yes their status would have been a serious obstacle to peace talks, but the ships were illegally fired upon and seized while legally traveling in what should have been safe waters.
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