| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.strueco.2005.04.004 |
| REXS: A forecasting model for assessing the impact of natural resource consumption and technological change on economic growth. | |
| Warr B; Ayres RU | |
| 发表日期 | 2006 |
| 出处 | Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 17 (3): 329-378 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper describes the development of a forecasting model in the tradition of system dynamics. It is called Resource EXergy Services (REXS). The model simulates economic growth of the US through the 20th century and extrapolates the simulation for several decades into the next century. The REXS model differs from previous energy -economy models such as DICE and NICE [Nordhaus, W.D., 1991. The cost of slowing climate change: a survey. The Energy Journal 12 (1), 37 -66] by eliminating the assumption of exogenously driven exponential growth along a so-called optimal trajectory. Instead, we suggest a simple model representing the dynamics of technological change in terms of decreasing energy (exergy) intensity and endogenously increasing efficiency of conversion of raw material and fuel inputs (exergy) to primary exergy services (useful work). |
| 主题 | Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) ; Institute Scholars (INS) |
| 关键词 | Macroeconomics Technology Energy Scenarios Simulation |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7843/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128526 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Warr B,Ayres RU. REXS: A forecasting model for assessing the impact of natural resource consumption and technological change on economic growth.. 2006. |
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