| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Research Report)
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| Evolution of Future Energy Demands till 2030 in Different World Regions: An Assessment Made for the Two IIASA Scenarios. |
| Khan AM; Hoelzl A
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| 发表日期 | 1982
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| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-82-014
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| 出版年 | 1982
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | An assessment is made of the evolution of energy demand in different world regions over the next five decades using an energy demand model called MEDEE-2. The 1975 pattern of energy consumption in each region is analyzed in terms of useful and final energy requirements of a large number of activities in three broad sectors of the economy: industry, transportation, households/services. Projections of useful and final energy demand to the years 2000 and 2030 are obtained by considering a plausible evolution of these activities together with feasible improvements in technological factors and likely changes in lifestyles. The detailed scenario assumptions underlying these projections are spelled out and the rationale behind these assumptions is explained. The extent of energy conservation embodied in these projections is elaborated and the shares of various energy forms in the projected sectoral energy demand trajectories are discussed. The assessment shows an increase in the final energy demand of the market-economy developing world regions by a factor of 7-12 between 1975 and 2030, and a corresponding increase in the developed world regions by a factor of 1.8-2.6. The final energy demand levels projected in various world regions for the year 2030 are about 20-50 percent lower than those expected on the basis of historical final energy-to-GDP elasticities of the 1950-1975 period. |
| 主题 | Energy Program (ENP)
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1846/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/122525
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Khan AM,Hoelzl A. Evolution of Future Energy Demands till 2030 in Different World Regions: An Assessment Made for the Two IIASA Scenarios.. 1982.
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文件名：
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RR-82-014.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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